CIEMAT Publications

Abstract

A crucial aspect in the viability of any CO₂ geological storage project-a key strategy in mitigating climate change-is the analysis and management of associated risks. The main objective of this work is to deepen the identification of key risk scenarios, both under normal operating conditions and in disturbed situations, and to develop a global model for risk evaluation. Additionally, critical aspects such as the extent of the CO₂ plume and subsurface pressure increase are evaluated.

The work has focused on a site located in the Ebro Basin, which has been the subject of various CO₂ geological storage studies in recent years, examining its geological characteristics with a focus on its suitability as a CO₂ storage complex. A detailed description of its geological environment (stratigraphy and relevant structures) has been provided, along with a thorough analysis of potential risks associated with CO₂ storage at the site. Furthermore, a global risk evaluation was undertaken using a methodology based on Bayesian networks, forming a holistic expert system for decision-making. This approach allows the incorporation of both qualitative and quantitative data, which is particularly useful in situations with limited information, as is the case with the study site.

Through this approach, based on previous studies and predictive models, the aim is to provide a rigorous analysis that supports decision-making for future carbon storage projects.